Composite signal model
Risk Rising
CAUTION
40.0
Composite score
^GSPC
Data through
SPX Regime
Caution signals are active. Avoid adding aggressive exposure.
- Close
- 7354.02
- Daily return
- -0.05%
- 50-day SMA
- 7363.43
- 200-day SMA
- 6924.97
- Distribution
- 3
- Above 200 streak
- 56
- Momentum 20
- -2.77%
- Heavy selling
- No
^NDX
Data through
NDX Regime
Caution signals are active. Avoid adding aggressive exposure.
- Close
- 29118.24
- Daily return
- -1.09%
- 50-day SMA
- 28881.00
- 200-day SMA
- 25977.71
- Distribution
- 6
- Above 200 streak
- 56
- Momentum 20
- -3.66%
- Heavy selling
- No
SPY
Data through
SPY Volume Confirmation
^SPX determines the broad-market trend. ^NDX confirms growth-market participation. SPY volume is used to detect accumulation and distribution pressure.
SPY distribution cluster detected while below the 50-day SMA.
- Latest close
- 728.99
- Daily move
- -0.72%
- Volume
- 69,241,946
- 50-session avg vol
- 53718958
- Volume multiple
- 1.29x
- Accumulation 15
- 2
- Distribution 15
- 6
- Net pressure
- 4
- Heavy selloff
- No
- Distribution cluster
- Yes
- Above 50-day SMA
- No
- Momentum damage
- Yes
Classified sessions in the current 15-session window
| Date | Classification | Move | Volume | Vol vs prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Distribution | -2.58% | 93,989,400 | 88.27% |
| 2026-06-09 | Distribution | -0.29% | 87,683,500 | 77.79% |
| 2026-06-11 | Accumulation | 1.70% | 86,330,500 | 43.07% |
| 2026-06-15 | Accumulation | 1.76% | 60,176,400 | 5.43% |
| 2026-06-16 | Distribution | -0.60% | 67,093,100 | 11.49% |
| 2026-06-17 | Distribution | -1.25% | 85,945,200 | 28.10% |
| 2026-06-23 | Distribution | -1.45% | 66,846,800 | 43.36% |
| 2026-06-26 | Distribution | -0.72% | 69,241,946 | 28.38% |
Why this signal
- SPX contributes 65% of the composite score; NDX contributes 35%.
- SPX regime is CAUTION with score 40.
- NDX regime is CAUTION with score 40.
- Composite score is 40.0.
- Both indexes are caution.
- SPY distribution trouble reinforces the existing caution signal.
^GSPC
Data through
S&P 500
- Latest close
- 7354.02
- Latest date
- 2026-06-26
- Latest change
- -0.05%
- Distribution days
- 5
- Accumulation days
- 2
First active accumulation day
2026-06-15
Recent signal days
| Date | Signal | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Distribution Day | -0.05% | 5,860,380,000 |
| 2026-06-24 | Distribution Day | -0.10% | 5,994,860,000 |
| 2026-06-18 | Accumulation Day | 1.08% | 9,061,110,000 |
| 2026-06-17 | Distribution Day | -1.21% | 5,883,740,000 |
| 2026-06-15 | Accumulation Day | 1.65% | 5,674,670,000 |
| 2026-06-11 | Rally Start | 1.75% | 5,658,920,000 |
| 2026-06-09 | Distribution Day | -0.26% | 6,006,390,000 |
| 2026-06-05 | Distribution Day | -2.64% | 5,591,290,000 |
| 2026-05-29 | Accumulation Day | 0.22% | 7,858,290,000 |
| 2026-05-27 | Accumulation Day | 0.02% | 5,524,250,000 |
| 2026-05-26 | Accumulation Day | 0.61% | 5,496,060,000 |
| 2026-05-21 | Accumulation Day | 0.17% | 5,440,620,000 |
^NDX
Data through
Nasdaq 100
- Latest close
- 29118.24
- Latest date
- 2026-06-26
- Latest change
- -1.09%
- Distribution days
- 6
- Accumulation days
- 3
First active accumulation day
2026-06-12
Recent signal days
| Date | Signal | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Distribution Day | -0.43% | 14,936,190,000 |
| 2026-06-23 | Distribution Day | -3.29% | 14,631,520,000 |
| 2026-06-18 | Rally Start | 2.48% | 18,286,150,000 |
| 2026-06-17 | Distribution Day | -0.99% | 11,443,600,000 |
| 2026-06-16 | Distribution Day | -1.89% | 11,132,830,000 |
| 2026-06-15 | Rally Start | 3.06% | 10,590,270,000 |
| 2026-06-12 | Accumulation Day | 0.64% | 10,337,400,000 |
| 2026-06-11 | Rally Start | 3.29% | 10,101,910,000 |
| 2026-06-09 | Distribution Day | -1.12% | 12,106,940,000 |
| 2026-06-05 | Distribution Day | -4.77% | 11,550,140,000 |
| 2026-05-29 | Accumulation Day | 0.36% | 11,906,000,000 |
| 2026-05-26 | Rally Start | 1.76% | 9,718,120,000 |